Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 8:05 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Minnesota Vikings by 2.1 points, giving them a 56% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 33.0 combined points, with Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 15.4 and Minnesota Vikings at 17.5. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Tampa Bay Buccaneers favored by 1.5 points, a 3.6-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Tampa Bay Buccaneers's margin lands between -19.2 and +15.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: J.J. McCarthy (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.1 / Minnesota Vikings -2.1 Moneyline: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +125 / Minnesota Vikings -125 Win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44.4% / Minnesota Vikings 55.6% Projected total: 33.0 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1474.3, Minnesota Vikings: 1560.9 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Tampa Bay Buccaneers Minnesota Vikings ------------------------- -------------------- ----------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.1 home_field_vector +2.2 -- neutral_script_efficiency -3.8 -9.8 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 / Minnesota Vikings +1.5 Consensus moneyline: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -125 / Minnesota Vikings +105 Market no-vig win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 53.2% / Minnesota Vikings 46.8% Spread range across books: -1.5 to -1.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.458707+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Tampa Bay Buccaneers EV% Minnesota Vikings EV% ---------- -------------------- ------ ----------------- ------ draftkings -125 -20.2% +105 +14.1% Spread: Book Tampa Bay Buccaneers Minnesota Vikings ---------- -------------------- ----------------- betus -1.5 (-110) +1.5 (-110) draftkings -1.5 (-110) +1.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -1.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 191 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Minnesota Vikings 17.5 -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin -19.2 -11.1 -2.1 +7.0 +15.0 Total points 15.9 24.0 32.9 41.9 50.3 Probability Tampa Bay Buccaneers covers the market spread: 39.4% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Baker Mayfield QB Passing yards 175.9 103-263 Pass attempts 29.8 22-38 Completions 18.8 13-26 Passing TDs 1.01 63% 1+, 27% 2+ Rushing yards 26.0 7-41 Rushing TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Bucky Irving RB Rushing yards 58.5 23-79 Carries 14.8 10-21 Rushing TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Receiving yards 28.3 9-61 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Kenneth Gainwell RB Rushing yards 47.7 12-82 Carries 9.5 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Receiving yards 31.0 12-55 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Jalen McMillan WR Receiving yards 46.7 13-99 Receptions 3.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Godwin WR Receiving yards 43.5 10-80 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Emeka Egbuka WR Receiving yards 35.3 1-54 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cade Otton TE Receiving yards 32.6 7-62 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Christian Rozeboom LB Tackles 4.1 2-6 SirVocea Dennis LB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Vita Vea DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ A'Shawn Robinson DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Al-Quadin Muhammad DL Sacks 1.50 78% 1+, 44% 2+ Rakeem Nunez-Roches DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ MINNESOTA VIKINGS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kyler Murray QB Passing yards 216.2 143-252 Pass attempts 32.0 24-39 Completions 21.4 16-25 Passing TDs 1.29 73% 1+, 37% 2+ Rushing yards 37.3 19-45 Rushing TDs 0.22 19% 1+ Aaron Jones RB Rushing yards 47.0 12-72 Carries 12.8 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Receiving yards 17.9 -- Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Justin Jefferson WR Receiving yards 44.7 11-80 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jauan Jennings WR Receiving yards 40.9 7-55 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.63 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Jordan Mason RB Rushing yards 39.5 4-64 Carries 8.4 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Receiving yards 5.9 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Addison WR Receiving yards 38.5 4-59 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ T.J. Hockenson TE Receiving yards 35.5 10-65 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Josh Oliver TE Receiving yards 21.8 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Blake Cashman LB Tackles 5.0 4-7 Eric Wilson LB Tackles 3.6 2-6 Levi Drake Rodriguez DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Dallas Turner LB Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Andrew Van Ginkel LB Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 days, Minnesota Vikings 7 days Tampa Bay Buccaneers recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Minnesota Vikings recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ------ ------ 2023 TB 20 MIN 17 TB Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------- --- ---- ------ J.J. McCarthy QB MIN Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7396