Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys NFL, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 8:25 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Baltimore Ravens by 3.7 points, giving them a 60% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 54.1 combined points, with Dallas Cowboys at 25.2 and Baltimore Ravens at 29.0. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Baltimore Ravens favored by 2.5 points, a 1.2-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Dallas Cowboys's margin lands between -20.8 and +13.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Dallas Cowboys +3.7 / Baltimore Ravens -3.7 Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys +149 / Baltimore Ravens -149 Win probability: Dallas Cowboys 40.2% / Baltimore Ravens 59.8% Projected total: 54.1 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Dallas Cowboys: 1447.8, Baltimore Ravens: 1549.8 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Dallas Cowboys Baltimore Ravens ------------------------- -------------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue -0.2 +0.8 home_field_vector -3.7 -- neutral_script_efficiency +7.7 +5.3 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Dallas Cowboys +2.5 / Baltimore Ravens -2.5 Consensus moneyline: Dallas Cowboys +114 / Baltimore Ravens -135 Market no-vig win probability: Dallas Cowboys 44.9% / Baltimore Ravens 55.1% Spread range across books: +2.5 to +2.5 (2 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.460601+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Dallas Cowboys EV% Baltimore Ravens EV% ---------- -------------- ------ ---------------- ----- betmgm +118 -12.4% -140 +2.6% draftkings +114 -14.0% -135 +4.1% Spread: Book Dallas Cowboys Baltimore Ravens ---------- -------------- ---------------- betmgm +2.5 (-110) -2.5 (-110) betus +2.5 (-110) -2.5 (-110) draftkings +2.5 (-110) -2.5 (-110) Line movement: opened Dallas Cowboys +2.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +2.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 192 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Baltimore Ravens 29.0 -- Dallas Cowboys 25.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Dallas Cowboys margin -20.8 -12.8 -3.8 +5.2 +13.6 Total points 36.7 44.9 54.2 63.3 71.7 Probability Dallas Cowboys covers the market spread: 46.1% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: DALLAS COWBOYS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dak Prescott QB Passing yards 291.1 218-405 Pass attempts 33.0 25-44 Completions 21.3 16-29 Passing TDs 1.50 78% 1+, 44% 2+ Rushing yards 14.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ George Pickens WR Receiving yards 76.8 43-140 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ CeeDee Lamb WR Receiving yards 72.4 38-120 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Javonte Williams RB Rushing yards 54.2 19-73 Carries 14.3 9-19 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 10.9 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Ryan Flournoy WR Rushing yards 9.3 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 46.7 13-92 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Jaydon Blue RB Rushing yards 27.2 -- Carries 8.9 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Jake Ferguson TE Receiving yards 26.4 1-46 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Brevyn Spann-Ford TE Receiving yards 11.9 -- Receptions 1.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Jalen Thompson DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Daron Bland DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Otito Ogbonnia DL Tackles 2.4 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Quinnen Williams DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Von Miller LB Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Tyrus Wheat DL Sacks 0.30 26% 1+ BALTIMORE RAVENS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Lamar Jackson QB Passing yards 228.8 156-291 Pass attempts 26.1 18-36 Completions 15.2 10-20 Passing TDs 1.09 66% 1+, 30% 2+ Rushing yards 29.0 10-46 Rushing TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Derrick Henry RB Rushing yards 78.6 43-133 Carries 15.0 10-24 Rushing TDs 1.56 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Receiving yards 21.2 2-36 Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zay Flowers WR Rushing yards 9.0 3-15 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 74.5 40-128 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Rashod Bateman WR Receiving yards 35.8 2-62 Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Justice Hill RB Rushing yards 34.0 -- Carries 5.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Receiving yards 24.1 5-41 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Mark Andrews TE Receiving yards 28.5 3-43 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Durham Smythe TE Receiving yards 7.8 -- Receptions 1.1 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Roquan Smith LB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Kyle Hamilton DB Tackles 4.1 3-6 Travis Jones DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Tavius Robinson LB Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Trey Hendrickson DL Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Dallas Cowboys 7 days, Baltimore Ravens 7 days Dallas Cowboys recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Baltimore Ravens recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 BAL 28 DAL 25 BAL ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7397