Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints NFL, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 8:25 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors New Orleans Saints by 8.1 points, giving them a 71% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 33.9 combined points, with New Orleans Saints at 21.0 and Las Vegas Raiders at 12.8. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: New Orleans Saints favored by 3.5 points, a 4.6-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, New Orleans Saints's margin lands between -8.7 and +25.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Jordyn Tyson (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: New Orleans Saints -8.1 / Las Vegas Raiders +8.1 Moneyline: New Orleans Saints -241 / Las Vegas Raiders +241 Win probability: New Orleans Saints 70.6% / Las Vegas Raiders 29.4% Projected total: 33.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- New Orleans Saints: 1426.3, Las Vegas Raiders: 1327.1 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor New Orleans Saints Las Vegas Raiders ------------------------- ------------------ ----------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +2.7 -0.5 home_field_vector +5.5 -- neutral_script_efficiency -10.4 -20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: New Orleans Saints -3.5 / Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 Consensus moneyline: New Orleans Saints -185 / Las Vegas Raiders +154 Market no-vig win probability: New Orleans Saints 62.2% / Las Vegas Raiders 37.8% Spread range across books: -3.5 to -3.5 (1 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.462248+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book New Orleans Saints EV% Las Vegas Raiders EV% ---------- ------------------ ----- ----------------- ------ draftkings -185 +8.8% +154 -25.4% Spread: Book New Orleans Saints Las Vegas Raiders ---------- ------------------ ----------------- betus -3.0 (-110) +3.0 (-110) draftkings -3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) Line movement: opened New Orleans Saints -3.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 191 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Las Vegas Raiders 12.8 -- New Orleans Saints 21.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- New Orleans Saints margin -8.7 -0.8 +8.1 +17.3 +25.4 Total points 16.0 24.4 34.0 43.0 51.2 Probability New Orleans Saints covers the market spread: 63.6% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tyler Shough QB Passing yards 231.3 158-287 Pass attempts 33.1 25-43 Completions 22.5 17-29 Passing TDs 1.06 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Rushing yards 23.8 5-42 Rushing TDs 0.35 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Chris Olave WR Receiving yards 62.3 28-99 Receptions 5.2 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Travis Etienne RB Rushing yards 49.1 14-71 Carries 13.6 8-17 Rushing TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Receiving yards 22.8 4-45 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Juwan Johnson TE Receiving yards 42.0 16-65 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Alvin Kamara RB Rushing yards 39.8 4-65 Carries 11.5 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 19.1 -- Receptions 3.1 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Devaughn Vele WR Receiving yards 35.2 1-65 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Noah Fant TE Receiving yards 20.4 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Kaden Elliss LB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Kool-Aid McKinstry DB Tackles 3.5 2-5 Davon Godchaux DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Cameron Jordan LB Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Chase Young LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kirk Cousins QB Passing yards 177.9 105-265 Pass attempts 29.9 22-40 Completions 18.6 13-26 Passing TDs 1.24 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 3.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Ashton Jeanty RB Rushing yards 51.8 16-91 Carries 13.6 8-21 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 24.6 5-47 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Jalen Nailor WR Receiving yards 40.2 6-73 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Brock Bowers TE Receiving yards 38.8 13-67 Receptions 4.6 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.68 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Tre Tucker WR Rushing yards 5.6 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 31.7 -- Receptions 3.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Michael Mayer TE Receiving yards 26.8 1-50 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jack Bech WR Receiving yards 26.0 -- Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jeremy Chinn DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Nakobe Dean LB Tackles 3.7 2-6 Adam Butler DL Tackles 2.4 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Thomas Booker DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Tonka Hemingway DL Sacks 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Maxx Crosby DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: New Orleans Saints 7 days, Las Vegas Raiders 7 days New Orleans Saints recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Las Vegas Raiders recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ----- ------ 2024 LV 25 NO 10 LV Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------ --- ---- ------------ Jordyn Tyson WR NO Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7398