Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos NFL, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 28, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Denver Broncos by 3.0 points, giving them a 58% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 55.6 combined points, with Denver Broncos at 29.2 and Los Angeles Rams at 26.2. The real sportsbook market sees it differently: Los Angeles Rams favored by 3.0 points, a 6.0-point gap from the model's own number -- worth noting, not automatically a sign either side is wrong. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Denver Broncos's margin lands between -14.3 and +20.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Denver Broncos -3.0 / Los Angeles Rams +3.0 Moneyline: Denver Broncos -138 / Los Angeles Rams +138 Win probability: Denver Broncos 58.0% / Los Angeles Rams 42.0% Projected total: 55.6 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Denver Broncos: 1624.3, Los Angeles Rams: 1619.8 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Denver Broncos Los Angeles Rams ------------------------- -------------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 -8.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.9 home_field_vector +13.6 -- neutral_script_efficiency +12.0 +20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Denver Broncos +3.0 / Los Angeles Rams -3.0 Consensus moneyline: Denver Broncos +130 / Los Angeles Rams -155 Market no-vig win probability: Denver Broncos 41.7% / Los Angeles Rams 58.3% Spread range across books: +3.0 to +3.0 (1 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.463889+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Denver Broncos EV% Los Angeles Rams EV% ---------- -------------- ------ ---------------- ------ draftkings +130 +33.4% -155 -30.9% Spread: Book Denver Broncos Los Angeles Rams ---------- -------------- ---------------- draftkings +3.0 (-110) -3.0 (-110) Line movement: opened Denver Broncos +3.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +3.0 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 191 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Los Angeles Rams 26.2 -- Denver Broncos 29.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Denver Broncos margin -14.3 -6.0 +2.8 +12.0 +20.1 Total points 37.8 46.1 55.4 64.6 72.9 Probability Denver Broncos covers the market spread: 67.1% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: DENVER BRONCOS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bo Nix QB Passing yards 244.4 171-322 Pass attempts 36.3 28-45 Completions 23.6 18-29 Passing TDs 1.23 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 25.5 7-42 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Jaylen Waddle WR Receiving yards 67.4 33-97 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ J.K. Dobbins RB Rushing yards 64.5 29-86 Carries 14.3 9-17 Rushing TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Receiving yards 8.4 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Courtland Sutton WR Receiving yards 60.2 26-102 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Troy Franklin WR Rushing yards 3.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 51.8 18-88 Receptions 4.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ R.J. Harvey RB Rushing yards 45.4 10-64 Carries 12.7 7-18 Rushing TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 26.2 7-46 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Evan Engram TE Receiving yards 28.7 3-52 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Adam Trautman TE Receiving yards 21.3 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alex Singleton LB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Talanoa Hufanga DB Tackles 4.2 3-7 Zach Allen DL Tackles 2.3 2-4 Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ D.J. Jones DL Tackles 2.3 2-3 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Nik Bonitto LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Malcolm Roach DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ LOS ANGELES RAMS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Matthew Stafford QB Passing yards 255.6 182-323 Pass attempts 37.5 30-43 Completions 22.9 18-26 Passing TDs 1.97 86% 1+, 58% 2+ Rushing yards 6.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Puka Nacua WR Rushing yards 9.6 3-16 Rushing TDs 0.05 5% 1+ Receiving yards 83.3 49-147 Receptions 6.7 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Kyren Williams RB Rushing yards 62.7 27-81 Carries 13.7 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.54 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 21.8 3-31 Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Blake Corum RB Rushing yards 53.2 18-89 Carries 11.1 6-14 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 13.9 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Colby Parkinson TE Receiving yards 48.6 23-70 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Davante Adams WR Receiving yards 46.7 13-76 Receptions 3.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Tyler Higbee TE Receiving yards 39.5 14-70 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Jordan Whittington WR Rushing yards 3.7 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 21.4 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kamren Curl DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Trent McDuffie DB Tackles 3.8 2-5 Poona Ford DL Tackles 2.5 2-4 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Kobie Turner DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Myles Garrett DL Sacks 1.56 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Braden Fiske DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Denver Broncos 7 days, Los Angeles Rams 6 days Denver Broncos recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Los Angeles Rams recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7399