Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears NFL, Week 3, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 29, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Chicago Bears by 1.9 points, giving them a 55% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 38.9 combined points, with Chicago Bears at 20.1 and Philadelphia Eagles at 18.4. The real sportsbook market agrees closely, also favoring Chicago Bears by 1.5 points -- little disagreement between the model and the market here. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Chicago Bears's margin lands between -15.8 and +19.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Chicago Bears -1.9 / Philadelphia Eagles +1.9 Moneyline: Chicago Bears -123 / Philadelphia Eagles +123 Win probability: Chicago Bears 55.1% / Philadelphia Eagles 44.9% Projected total: 38.9 points Last recalculated: August 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Chicago Bears: 1533.0, Philadelphia Eagles: 1565.8 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Chicago Bears Philadelphia Eagles ------------------------- ------------- ------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.0 home_field_vector +13.3 -- neutral_script_efficiency +20.0 +1.8 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ Consensus spread: Chicago Bears -1.5 / Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 Consensus moneyline: Chicago Bears -118 / Philadelphia Eagles -102 Market no-vig win probability: Chicago Bears 51.7% / Philadelphia Eagles 48.3% Spread range across books: -1.5 to -1.5 (1 books) Per-book lines (as of 2026-08-30T06:20:02.466091+00:00): Moneyline (EV% is against the model's own win probability, not a cross-book average): Book Chicago Bears EV% Philadelphia Eagles EV% ---------- ------------- ----- ------------------- ------ draftkings -118 +1.9% -102 -11.1% Spread: Book Chicago Bears Philadelphia Eagles ---------- ------------- ------------------- draftkings -1.5 (-105) +1.5 (-115) Line movement: opened Chicago Bears -1.5 (July 16, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC), now -1.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM UTC), 183 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Philadelphia Eagles 18.4 -- Chicago Bears 20.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Chicago Bears margin -15.8 -7.5 +1.6 +10.7 +19.3 Total points 21.4 29.4 38.5 47.5 55.9 Probability Chicago Bears covers the market spread: 50.5% ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CHICAGO BEARS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Caleb Williams QB Passing yards 228.9 156-299 Pass attempts 35.7 28-42 Completions 20.5 15-24 Passing TDs 1.44 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Rushing yards 21.3 3-33 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ D'Andre Swift RB Rushing yards 66.0 30-97 Carries 13.4 8-17 Rushing TDs 0.86 58% 1+, 21% 2+ Receiving yards 20.9 2-34 Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kyle Monangai RB Rushing yards 54.3 19-94 Carries 12.0 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 23.7 4-39 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Luther Burden WR Rushing yards 3.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 52.6 19-90 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Rome Odunze WR Receiving yards 49.0 15-82 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Colston Loveland TE Receiving yards 37.1 12-67 Receptions 4.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Kalif Raymond WR Receiving yards 34.2 0-55 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Cole Kmet TE Receiving yards 19.9 -- Receptions 2.5 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.19 18% 1+ T.J. Edwards LB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Devin Bush LB Tackles 3.6 2-6 Grady Jarrett DL Tackles 2.2 2-3 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Gervon Dexter DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Montez Sweat DL Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Austin Booker DL Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jalen Hurts QB Passing yards 218.4 145-286 Pass attempts 31.2 23-40 Completions 19.1 14-24 Passing TDs 1.50 78% 1+, 44% 2+ Rushing yards 30.0 11-46 Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Saquon Barkley RB Rushing yards 77.9 42-122 Carries 15.6 10-22 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 27.1 8-49 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ DeVonta Smith WR Receiving yards 58.9 25-83 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Tank Bigsby RB Rushing yards 39.3 4-71 Carries 7.6 2-14 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 18.7 -- Receptions 1.1 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dontayvion Wicks WR Receiving yards 38.0 4-75 Receptions 2.8 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Dallas Goedert TE Receiving yards 35.4 10-60 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Johnny Mundt TE Receiving yards 14.6 -- Receptions 1.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jonathan Jones DB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Zack Baun LB Tackles 3.8 2-5 Nolan Smith LB Tackles 2.2 0-3 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Moro Ojomo DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Jalyx Hunt LB Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Jalen Carter DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Chicago Bears 8 days, Philadelphia Eagles 8 days Chicago Bears recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Philadelphia Eagles recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 CHI 24 PHI 15 CHI ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7400