Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns NFL, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 2, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Pittsburgh Steelers by 5.2 points, giving them a 64% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 32.4 combined points, with Cleveland Browns at 13.6 and Pittsburgh Steelers at 18.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Cleveland Browns's margin lands between -22.4 and +12.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Cleveland Browns +5.2 / Pittsburgh Steelers -5.2 Moneyline: Cleveland Browns +175 / Pittsburgh Steelers -175 Win probability: Cleveland Browns 36.3% / Pittsburgh Steelers 63.7% Projected total: 32.4 points Last recalculated: September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Cleveland Browns: 1392.6, Pittsburgh Steelers: 1526.4 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers ------------------------- ---------------- ------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -6.0 -3.0 travel_fatigue +1.7 +3.7 home_field_vector +13.3 -- neutral_script_efficiency -20.0 -12.9 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened Cleveland Browns +3.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +2.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Pittsburgh Steelers 18.8 -- Cleveland Browns 13.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Cleveland Browns margin -22.4 -14.5 -5.2 +3.9 +12.3 Total points 15.1 23.4 32.3 41.5 49.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CLEVELAND BROWNS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Quinshon Judkins RB Rushing yards 55.7 20-86 Carries 13.9 8-19 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 24.3 5-47 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jerry Jeudy WR Receiving yards 41.2 7-66 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Harold Fannin TE Receiving yards 40.2 14-70 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 12% 2+ Dylan Sampson RB Rushing yards 31.0 -- Carries 8.5 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 27.1 8-56 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.08 7% 1+ Blake Whiteheart TE Receiving yards 10.7 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Carson Schwesinger LB Tackles 4.9 4-7 Quincy Williams LB Tackles 3.5 2-5 Mason Graham DL Tackles 2.7 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Isaiah McGuire DL Tackles 2.5 2-4 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Maliek Collins DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Derek Barnett DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ PITTSBURGH STEELERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Aaron Rodgers QB Passing yards 191.1 118-252 Pass attempts 34.0 26-43 Completions 21.4 16-28 Passing TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Rushing yards 8.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Jaylen Warren RB Rushing yards 52.1 16-92 Carries 11.8 6-14 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 20.9 2-37 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ DK Metcalf WR Receiving yards 46.1 12-83 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Rico Dowdle RB Rushing yards 40.1 5-61 Carries 11.3 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 17.8 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Michael Pittman WR Receiving yards 32.8 -- Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Pat Freiermuth TE Receiving yards 30.5 5-48 Receptions 3.2 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Darnell Washington TE Receiving yards 28.2 3-45 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Roman Wilson WR Receiving yards 26.8 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Patrick Queen LB Tackles 4.1 2-7 DeShon Elliott DB Tackles 4.1 2-6 Payton Wilson LB Tackles 3.5 2-5 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Joey Porter DB Tackles 1.8 0-4 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Alex Highsmith LB Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ T.J. Watt LB Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Cleveland Browns 4 days, Pittsburgh Steelers 4 days Cleveland Browns recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Pittsburgh Steelers recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 PIT 6 CLE 13 CLE 2025 CLE 9 PIT 23 PIT 2024 CLE 14 PIT 27 PIT 2024 PIT 19 CLE 24 CLE 2023 PIT 10 CLE 13 CLE ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7401