Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens NFL, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Baltimore Ravens by 16.6 points, giving them a 86% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.3 combined points, with Baltimore Ravens at 33.3 and Tennessee Titans at 16.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Baltimore Ravens's margin lands between -0.5 and +33.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Teddye Buchanan (Out), Zay Flowers (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Baltimore Ravens -16.6 / Tennessee Titans +16.6 Moneyline: Baltimore Ravens -606 / Tennessee Titans +606 Win probability: Baltimore Ravens 85.8% / Tennessee Titans 14.2% Projected total: 50.3 points Last recalculated: September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Baltimore Ravens: 1574.0, Tennessee Titans: 1306.6 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Baltimore Ravens Tennessee Titans ------------------------- ---------------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -9.0 -3.0 travel_fatigue +2.5 +2.2 home_field_vector -5.7 -- neutral_script_efficiency +16.2 -5.8 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened Baltimore Ravens -8.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -8.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Tennessee Titans 16.9 -- Baltimore Ravens 33.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Baltimore Ravens margin -0.5 +7.5 +16.4 +25.4 +33.4 Total points 32.8 41.1 50.1 59.4 67.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: BALTIMORE RAVENS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Lamar Jackson QB Passing yards 229.5 156-310 Pass attempts 25.7 18-35 Completions 15.2 10-20 Passing TDs 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Rushing yards 27.4 9-44 Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Derrick Henry RB Rushing yards 75.9 40-128 Carries 15.3 10-24 Rushing TDs 1.99 86% 1+, 59% 2+ Receiving yards 20.3 1-34 Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zay Flowers WR Rushing yards 8.4 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 73.9 40-133 Receptions 4.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 14% 2+ Justice Hill RB Rushing yards 33.4 -- Carries 6.0 0-8 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 23.2 4-38 Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Rashod Bateman WR Receiving yards 33.4 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Mark Andrews TE Receiving yards 31.7 6-50 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Durham Smythe TE Receiving yards 7.4 -- Receptions 1.1 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Roquan Smith LB Tackles 4.5 3-7 Kyle Hamilton DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Travis Jones DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Tavius Robinson LB Sacks 0.79 54% 1+, 19% 2+ Trey Hendrickson LB Sacks 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ TENNESSEE TITANS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Cameron Ward QB Passing yards 207.6 134-292 Pass attempts 30.7 22-44 Completions 19.2 14-27 Passing TDs 1.13 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Rushing yards 19.5 1-33 Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Wan'Dale Robinson WR Rushing yards 1.8 0-4 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 64.4 30-119 Receptions 5.4 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Tony Pollard RB Rushing yards 55.5 20-98 Carries 13.5 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 12.7 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Calvin Ridley WR Receiving yards 50.9 17-99 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Daniel Bellinger TE Receiving yards 28.8 3-53 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Tyjae Spears RB Rushing yards 28.0 -- Carries 8.5 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 19.5 0-36 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gunnar Helm TE Receiving yards 24.2 -- Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Erick Hallett DB Tackles 4.1 3-7 Alontae Taylor DB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Marcus Harris DB Tackles 3.0 2-5 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ John Franklin-Myers DL Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Jeffery Simmons DL Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Baltimore Ravens 7 days, Tennessee Titans 7 days Baltimore Ravens recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Tennessee Titans recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2023 BAL 24 TEN 16 BAL Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status --------------- --- ---- ------------ Teddye Buchanan LB BAL Out Zay Flowers WR BAL Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7403