New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills NFL, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Buffalo Bills by 5.0 points, giving them a 63% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 42.3 combined points, with Buffalo Bills at 23.8 and New England Patriots at 18.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Buffalo Bills's margin lands between -11.8 and +22.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: T.J. Sanders (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Buffalo Bills -5.0 / New England Patriots +5.0 Moneyline: Buffalo Bills -172 / New England Patriots +172 Win probability: Buffalo Bills 63.2% / New England Patriots 36.8% Projected total: 42.3 points Last recalculated: September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Buffalo Bills: 1635.3, New England Patriots: 1594.2 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Buffalo Bills New England Patriots ------------------------- ------------- -------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -9.0 -6.0 travel_fatigue +0.1 -2.4 home_field_vector +8.0 -- neutral_script_efficiency +20.0 +9.9 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened Buffalo Bills -3.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.0 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: New England Patriots 18.6 -- Buffalo Bills 23.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Buffalo Bills margin -11.8 -3.8 +5.2 +14.1 +22.3 Total points 24.6 33.1 42.2 51.6 60.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: BUFFALO BILLS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Josh Allen QB Passing yards 203.3 130-274 Pass attempts 30.1 22-37 Completions 20.4 15-26 Passing TDs 1.51 78% 1+, 44% 2+ Rushing yards 34.2 16-54 Rushing TDs 0.93 60% 1+, 24% 2+ James Cook RB Rushing yards 56.0 20-90 Carries 13.9 8-21 Rushing TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Receiving yards 17.6 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Dalton Kincaid TE Receiving yards 47.6 22-85 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ D.J. Moore WR Rushing yards 6.3 0-12 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 44.4 10-83 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Khalil Shakir WR Receiving yards 41.6 8-68 Receptions 4.6 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Dawson Knox TE Receiving yards 33.6 8-60 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Ray Davis RB Rushing yards 32.7 -- Carries 7.5 2-15 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 14.2 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Keon Coleman WR Receiving yards 25.6 -- Receptions 2.1 -- Receiving TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Dee Alford DB Tackles 4.4 3-7 Terrel Bernard LB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Deone Walker DL Tackles 2.3 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Christian Benford DB Tackles 2.1 1-3 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Gregory Rousseau LB Sacks 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Ed Oliver DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Drake Maye QB Passing yards 191.4 118-272 Pass attempts 30.3 22-41 Completions 19.9 14-27 Passing TDs 1.77 83% 1+, 53% 2+ Rushing yards 31.4 13-49 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Rhamondre Stevenson RB Rushing yards 59.7 24-94 Carries 12.4 7-19 Rushing TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 31.4 12-54 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Mack Hollins WR Receiving yards 49.5 16-69 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Romeo Doubs WR Receiving yards 49.4 16-90 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Hunter Henry TE Receiving yards 31.7 6-51 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Demario Douglas WR Rushing yards 3.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 27.2 -- Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Christian Gonzalez DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Craig Woodson DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Christian Barmore DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Cory Durden DL Tackles 1.4 0-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Dre'Mont Jones LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Milton Williams DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Buffalo Bills 7 days, New England Patriots 7 days Buffalo Bills recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games New England Patriots recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 BUF 35 NE 31 BUF 2025 NE 23 BUF 20 NE 2024 BUF 16 NE 23 NE 2024 NE 21 BUF 24 BUF 2023 NE 21 BUF 27 BUF Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------ --- ---- ------------ T.J. Sanders DL BUF Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7404