New York Jets at Chicago Bears NFL, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Chicago Bears by 14.2 points, giving them a 82% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 53.8 combined points, with Chicago Bears at 34.1 and New York Jets at 19.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Chicago Bears's margin lands between -2.5 and +31.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Kyler Gordon (Out), Rome Odunze (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Chicago Bears -14.2 / New York Jets +14.2 Moneyline: Chicago Bears -466 / New York Jets +466 Win probability: Chicago Bears 82.3% / New York Jets 17.7% Projected total: 53.8 points Last recalculated: September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Chicago Bears: 1556.2, New York Jets: 1369.8 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Chicago Bears New York Jets ------------------------- ------------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -12.0 -9.0 travel_fatigue +2.2 +2.8 home_field_vector +9.5 -- neutral_script_efficiency +20.0 -20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened Chicago Bears -8.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -8.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: New York Jets 19.8 -- Chicago Bears 34.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Chicago Bears margin -2.5 +5.3 +14.0 +23.4 +31.5 Total points 36.7 44.7 53.8 63.1 71.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CHICAGO BEARS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Caleb Williams QB Passing yards 240.7 168-299 Pass attempts 34.9 27-42 Completions 20.9 16-24 Passing TDs 2.44 91% 1+, 70% 2+ Rushing yards 26.9 8-47 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ D'Andre Swift RB Rushing yards 70.7 35-104 Carries 13.3 8-17 Rushing TDs 1.30 73% 1+, 37% 2+ Receiving yards 22.1 3-37 Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Luther Burden WR Rushing yards 3.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 58.1 24-98 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Kyle Monangai RB Rushing yards 55.3 20-86 Carries 10.8 6-14 Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Receiving yards 25.5 6-42 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Colston Loveland TE Receiving yards 48.8 23-88 Receptions 4.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Kalif Raymond WR Receiving yards 44.2 10-72 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Rome Odunze WR Receiving yards 32.8 -- Receptions 2.1 -- Receiving TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Cole Kmet TE Receiving yards 28.5 3-39 Receptions 2.5 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ T.J. Edwards LB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Tyrique Stevenson DB Tackles 3.7 2-6 Devin Bush LB Tackles 3.6 2-6 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Montez Sweat DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Austin Booker DL Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ NEW YORK JETS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Geno Smith QB Passing yards 224.1 151-288 Pass attempts 29.9 22-39 Completions 20.0 14-26 Passing TDs 1.22 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 10.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Garrett Wilson WR Receiving yards 73.7 40-109 Receptions 5.2 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.85 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Breece Hall RB Rushing yards 66.1 31-102 Carries 14.4 9-18 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 27.6 9-56 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Adonai Mitchell WR Receiving yards 55.4 21-92 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Braelon Allen RB Rushing yards 41.1 6-57 Carries 9.1 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Mason Taylor TE Receiving yards 26.6 1-43 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Dane Belton DB Tackles 4.2 3-6 Minkah Fitzpatrick DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Demario Davis LB Tackles 3.6 2-6 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Kingsley Enagbare LB Tackles 2.4 2-4 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Will McDonald LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Jowon Briggs DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Chicago Bears 6 days, New York Jets 7 days Chicago Bears recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games New York Jets recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------ --- ---- ------------ Kyler Gordon DB CHI Out Rome Odunze WR CHI Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7405