Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals NFL, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Jacksonville Jaguars by 3.8 points, giving them a 60% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 51.4 combined points, with Cincinnati Bengals at 23.7 and Jacksonville Jaguars at 27.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Cincinnati Bengals's margin lands between -20.8 and +13.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Dax Hill (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Cincinnati Bengals +3.8 / Jacksonville Jaguars -3.8 Moneyline: Cincinnati Bengals +152 / Jacksonville Jaguars -152 Win probability: Cincinnati Bengals 39.7% / Jacksonville Jaguars 60.3% Projected total: 51.4 points Last recalculated: September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Cincinnati Bengals: 1492.9, Jacksonville Jaguars: 1587.7 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Cincinnati Bengals Jacksonville Jaguars ------------------------- ------------------ -------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -3.0 -3.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.1 home_field_vector +1.1 -- neutral_script_efficiency +4.4 +20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -2.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Jacksonville Jaguars 27.4 -- Cincinnati Bengals 23.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Cincinnati Bengals margin -20.8 -12.6 -3.9 +5.5 +13.6 Total points 33.4 42.0 51.1 60.2 68.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CINCINNATI BENGALS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Joe Burrow QB Passing yards 234.3 161-312 Pass attempts 33.0 25-43 Completions 22.0 16-29 Passing TDs 2.01 87% 1+, 60% 2+ Rushing yards 13.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ja'Marr Chase WR Rushing yards 4.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 64.5 30-110 Receptions 5.4 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Tee Higgins WR Receiving yards 62.7 29-91 Receptions 4.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Chase Brown RB Rushing yards 48.1 13-70 Carries 14.0 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 21.0 2-30 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Mike Gesicki TE Receiving yards 37.8 12-67 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Andrei Iosivas WR Rushing yards 4.6 4-5 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 31.0 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Samaje Perine RB Rushing yards 27.8 -- Carries 9.9 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 12.8 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Drew Sample TE Receiving yards 17.7 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Battle DB Tackles 4.5 3-7 Bryan Cook DB Tackles 3.8 2-5 Boye Mafe DL Tackles 1.4 0-2 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Dexter Lawrence DL Tackles 1.4 0-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Myles Murphy DL Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Demetrius Knight LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Trevor Lawrence QB Passing yards 260.7 188-301 Pass attempts 30.8 23-36 Completions 19.8 14-23 Passing TDs 2.83 94% 1+, 77% 2+ Rushing yards 27.0 8-43 Rushing TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Parker Washington WR Rushing yards 0.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 67.0 33-103 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Chris Rodriguez RB Rushing yards 55.8 20-81 Carries 11.9 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 19.5 0-28 Receptions 1.6 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brenton Strange TE Receiving yards 47.3 22-69 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Bhayshul Tuten RB Rushing yards 46.2 11-77 Carries 10.0 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Receiving yards 15.4 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Jakobi Meyers WR Rushing yards 3.4 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 44.1 10-67 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Brian Thomas WR Rushing yards 6.4 5-8 Rushing TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Receiving yards 41.4 7-64 Receptions 3.1 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Montaric Brown DB Tackles 4.2 3-6 Foyesade Oluokun LB Tackles 4.1 2-5 Travon Walker DL Tackles 2.5 2-4 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Arik Armstead DL Tackles 1.8 1-2 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Josh Hines-Allen DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ B.J. Green DL Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Cincinnati Bengals 7 days, Jacksonville Jaguars 7 days Cincinnati Bengals recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Jacksonville Jaguars recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 JAX 27 CIN 31 CIN 2023 CIN 34 JAX 31 CIN Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status -------- --- ---- ------------ Dax Hill DB CIN Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7406