Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans NFL, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Houston Texans by 11.3 points, giving them a 77% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 58.4 combined points, with Houston Texans at 34.7 and Dallas Cowboys at 23.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Houston Texans's margin lands between -6.1 and +28.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Malik Davis (Out), Phil Mafah (Out), DeMarvion Overshown (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Houston Texans -11.3 / Dallas Cowboys +11.3 Moneyline: Houston Texans -339 / Dallas Cowboys +339 Win probability: Houston Texans 77.2% / Dallas Cowboys 22.8% Projected total: 58.4 points Last recalculated: September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Houston Texans: 1595.8, Dallas Cowboys: 1425.6 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Houston Texans Dallas Cowboys ------------------------- -------------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 -3.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -0.3 home_field_vector +0.4 -- neutral_script_efficiency +6.0 +6.5 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened Houston Texans -2.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -2.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Dallas Cowboys 23.6 -- Houston Texans 34.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Houston Texans margin -6.1 +2.2 +11.2 +20.2 +28.3 Total points 41.0 48.9 58.2 67.6 76.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: HOUSTON TEXANS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- C.J. Stroud QB Passing yards 262.6 190-309 Pass attempts 32.5 24-40 Completions 19.8 14-24 Passing TDs 1.90 85% 1+, 57% 2+ Rushing yards 11.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Nico Collins WR Rushing yards 8.3 8-9 Rushing TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 73.7 40-110 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.57 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Woody Marks RB Rushing yards 57.2 22-89 Carries 13.6 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 11.5 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ David Montgomery RB Rushing yards 44.0 8-63 Carries 10.6 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Receiving yards 17.1 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Dalton Schultz TE Receiving yards 44.0 18-72 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Xavier Hutchinson WR Rushing yards 8.3 6-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 42.4 8-72 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kayshon Boutte WR Receiving yards 42.3 8-72 Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Foster Moreau TE Receiving yards 15.4 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Reed Blankenship DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Jalen Pitre DB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Will Anderson DL Tackles 2.6 2-4 Sacks 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Tommy Togiai DL Tackles 2.6 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Danielle Hunter DL Sacks 1.12 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Jadeveon Clowney DL Sacks 1.06 65% 1+, 29% 2+ DALLAS COWBOYS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dak Prescott QB Passing yards 231.0 158-331 Pass attempts 33.1 25-44 Completions 21.1 16-28 Passing TDs 1.23 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 13.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ CeeDee Lamb WR Receiving yards 58.5 25-100 Receptions 4.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Javonte Williams RB Rushing yards 58.0 22-81 Carries 14.1 8-19 Rushing TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 15.9 -- Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ George Pickens WR Receiving yards 56.7 23-106 Receptions 4.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Ryan Flournoy WR Rushing yards 7.8 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 40.0 6-76 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Emari Demercado RB Rushing yards 31.5 -- Carries 5.9 0-10 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.7 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Jake Ferguson TE Receiving yards 28.2 2-50 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Brevyn Spann-Ford TE Receiving yards 13.9 -- Receptions 1.4 -- Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Jalen Thompson DB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Daron Bland DB Tackles 3.8 2-5 Otito Ogbonnia DL Tackles 2.3 2-3 Sacks 0.10 10% 1+ Quinnen Williams DL Tackles 1.6 1-2 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Von Miller LB Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Donovan Ezeiruaku LB Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Houston Texans 7 days, Dallas Cowboys 7 days Houston Texans recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Dallas Cowboys recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 HOU 34 DAL 10 HOU Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------------- --- ---- ------------ Malik Davis RB DAL Out Phil Mafah RB DAL Out DeMarvion Overshown LB DAL Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7407