Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants NFL, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors New York Giants by 5.0 points, giving them a 63% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 51.8 combined points, with New York Giants at 28.4 and Arizona Cardinals at 23.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, New York Giants's margin lands between -12.3 and +21.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Malik Nabers (Questionable). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: New York Giants -5.0 / Arizona Cardinals +5.0 Moneyline: New York Giants -173 / Arizona Cardinals +173 Win probability: New York Giants 63.3% / Arizona Cardinals 36.7% Projected total: 51.8 points Last recalculated: September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- New York Giants: 1432.3, Arizona Cardinals: 1417.7 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor New York Giants Arizona Cardinals ------------------------- --------------- ----------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -3.0 -12.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -3.4 home_field_vector +2.4 -- neutral_script_efficiency +6.6 -20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened New York Giants -7.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -7.0 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Arizona Cardinals 23.4 -- New York Giants 28.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- New York Giants margin -12.3 -3.9 +5.0 +14.0 +21.9 Total points 34.0 42.4 51.8 61.0 69.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NEW YORK GIANTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jaxson Dart QB Passing yards 219.2 146-303 Pass attempts 29.3 21-37 Completions 19.6 14-25 Passing TDs 1.43 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Rushing yards 43.4 25-68 Rushing TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Cam Skattebo RB Rushing yards 63.2 28-93 Carries 13.3 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.93 60% 1+, 24% 2+ Receiving yards 27.6 8-49 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Theo Johnson TE Receiving yards 50.2 25-86 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Isaiah Likely TE Receiving yards 46.3 21-87 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Darnell Mooney WR Receiving yards 38.9 5-62 Receptions 2.5 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Malik Nabers WR Receiving yards 38.2 4-104 Receptions 2.6 0-6 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Najee Harris RB Rushing yards 29.4 -- Carries 7.3 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tremaine Edmunds LB Tackles 4.9 4-7 Tyler Nubin DB Tackles 3.6 2-5 Shelby Harris DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ D.J. Reader DL Tackles 1.7 1-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Brian Burns LB Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Darius Alexander DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ARIZONA CARDINALS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jacoby Brissett QB Passing yards 263.8 191-309 Pass attempts 36.7 28-43 Completions 23.5 18-29 Passing TDs 1.85 84% 1+, 55% 2+ Rushing yards 17.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Michael Wilson WR Receiving yards 72.5 39-113 Receptions 5.0 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Trey McBride TE Receiving yards 58.7 33-91 Receptions 5.8 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Marvin Harrison WR Receiving yards 54.9 21-89 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Tyler Allgeier RB Rushing yards 53.4 18-83 Carries 11.5 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 21.9 3-40 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kendrick Bourne WR Receiving yards 37.4 3-59 Receptions 3.2 1-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Elijah Higgins TE Receiving yards 31.0 5-62 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Budda Baker DB Tackles 4.1 3-6 Mack Wilson LB Tackles 4.1 2-6 Roy Lopez DL Tackles 2.2 2-3 Sacks 0.21 19% 1+ Dante Stills DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Josh Sweat LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Walter Nolen DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: New York Giants 7 days, Arizona Cardinals 7 days New York Giants recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Arizona Cardinals recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2023 NYG 31 ARI 28 NYG Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------ --- ---- ------------ Malik Nabers WR NYG Questionable ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7408