Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles NFL, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Philadelphia Eagles by 1.6 points, giving them a 54% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 47.7 combined points, with Philadelphia Eagles at 24.6 and Los Angeles Rams at 23.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Philadelphia Eagles's margin lands between -15.6 and +18.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Jonathan Greenard (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -1.6 / Los Angeles Rams +1.6 Moneyline: Philadelphia Eagles -119 / Los Angeles Rams +119 Win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 54.4% / Los Angeles Rams 45.6% Projected total: 47.7 points Last recalculated: September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Philadelphia Eagles: 1572.0, Los Angeles Rams: 1579.3 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Philadelphia Eagles Los Angeles Rams ------------------------- ------------------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -3.0 -3.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -3.2 home_field_vector +6.5 -- neutral_script_efficiency +0.9 +12.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +1.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Los Angeles Rams 23.0 -- Philadelphia Eagles 24.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Philadelphia Eagles margin -15.6 -7.4 +1.6 +10.4 +18.9 Total points 29.9 38.4 47.4 56.8 65.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jalen Hurts QB Passing yards 202.6 130-259 Pass attempts 31.0 23-40 Completions 19.1 14-24 Passing TDs 1.65 81% 1+, 49% 2+ Rushing yards 28.5 10-45 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Saquon Barkley RB Rushing yards 64.5 29-101 Carries 15.1 10-21 Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Receiving yards 21.9 3-42 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ DeVonta Smith WR Receiving yards 53.3 19-69 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Dontayvion Wicks WR Receiving yards 44.0 10-84 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Dallas Goedert TE Receiving yards 34.7 9-60 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Tank Bigsby RB Rushing yards 29.6 -- Carries 7.3 2-14 Rushing TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Receiving yards 15.5 -- Receptions 1.1 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Johnny Mundt TE Receiving yards 13.0 -- Receptions 1.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zack Baun LB Tackles 4.0 2-6 Jonathan Jones DB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Nolan Smith LB Tackles 2.1 0-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Moro Ojomo DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Jalyx Hunt LB Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Jalen Carter DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ LOS ANGELES RAMS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Matthew Stafford QB Passing yards 256.8 184-349 Pass attempts 36.5 28-44 Completions 22.0 16-26 Passing TDs 1.67 81% 1+, 50% 2+ Rushing yards 6.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Puka Nacua WR Rushing yards 9.7 3-17 Rushing TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Receiving yards 78.5 44-143 Receptions 6.5 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Kyren Williams RB Rushing yards 63.0 28-85 Carries 13.6 8-19 Rushing TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Receiving yards 24.1 5-34 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Blake Corum RB Rushing yards 51.1 16-72 Carries 11.0 6-14 Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Receiving yards 14.8 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Davante Adams WR Receiving yards 49.4 15-74 Receptions 3.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.39 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Colby Parkinson TE Receiving yards 28.3 3-45 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Tyler Higbee TE Receiving yards 23.9 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Jordan Whittington WR Rushing yards 3.7 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 18.7 -- Receptions 2.1 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Quentin Lake DB Tackles 4.1 3-6 Nate Landman LB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Poona Ford DL Tackles 2.5 2-4 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Kobie Turner DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Myles Garrett LB Sacks 1.56 79% 1+, 46% 2+ Braden Fiske DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Philadelphia Eagles 6 days, Los Angeles Rams 7 days Philadelphia Eagles recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Los Angeles Rams recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 LA 26 PHI 33 PHI 2024 LA 22 PHI 28 PHI 2024 PHI 37 LA 20 PHI 2023 PHI 23 LA 14 PHI Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ----------------- --- ---- ------ Jonathan Greenard LB PHI Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7409