Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Green Bay Packers by 2.2 points, giving them a 56% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 47.2 combined points, with Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 22.6 and Green Bay Packers at 24.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Tampa Bay Buccaneers's margin lands between -19.4 and +15.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Justin Skule (Questionable), Sean Tucker (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.2 / Green Bay Packers -2.2 Moneyline: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +127 / Green Bay Packers -127 Win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44.1% / Green Bay Packers 55.9% Projected total: 47.2 points Last recalculated: September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1457.2, Green Bay Packers: 1507.0 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Tampa Bay Buccaneers Green Bay Packers ------------------------- -------------------- ----------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -9.0 -12.0 travel_fatigue +1.7 +0.1 home_field_vector +1.6 -- neutral_script_efficiency -16.3 +16.2 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 (July 16, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC), now +1.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 185 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Green Bay Packers 24.7 -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin -19.4 -11.3 -2.1 +7.3 +15.4 Total points 29.8 38.0 47.3 56.7 64.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Baker Mayfield QB Passing yards 191.2 118-284 Pass attempts 29.8 22-38 Completions 19.3 14-27 Passing TDs 1.14 68% 1+, 32% 2+ Rushing yards 26.9 8-42 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Bucky Irving RB Rushing yards 57.0 21-78 Carries 13.8 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Receiving yards 28.3 9-61 Receptions 3.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Chris Godwin WR Receiving yards 45.7 12-83 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.31 26% 1+ Kenneth Gainwell RB Rushing yards 41.4 6-67 Carries 9.0 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Receiving yards 29.3 10-57 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Emeka Egbuka WR Receiving yards 38.8 5-61 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cade Otton TE Receiving yards 32.9 7-60 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Antoine Winfield DB Tackles 4.1 3-7 Christian Rozeboom LB Tackles 2.5 1-5 Jalen McMillan WR Receiving yards 2.4 -- Receptions 0.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Vita Vea DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ A'Shawn Robinson DL Tackles 2.0 2-3 Sacks 0.06 6% 1+ Al-Quadin Muhammad LB Sacks 1.31 73% 1+, 38% 2+ Rakeem Nunez-Roches DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ GREEN BAY PACKERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jordan Love QB Passing yards 246.5 173-362 Pass attempts 30.7 22-43 Completions 18.4 13-24 Passing TDs 2.12 88% 1+, 63% 2+ Rushing yards 15.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tucker Kraft TE Receiving yards 57.8 32-111 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 1.03 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Christian Watson WR Receiving yards 57.5 24-102 Receptions 4.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ Matthew Golden WR Rushing yards 9.1 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 38.2 4-74 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Jayden Reed WR Rushing yards 12.9 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 37.4 3-48 Receptions 3.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Jonnu Smith TE Receiving yards 24.8 -- Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Christopher Brooks RB Rushing yards 20.2 -- Carries 5.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 9.2 -- Receptions 1.4 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Evan Williams DB Tackles 4.3 3-6 Edgerrin Cooper LB Tackles 4.3 2-6 Javon Hargrave DL Tackles 2.2 2-3 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Karl Brooks DL Tackles 1.7 1-2 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Micah Parsons LB Sacks 1.25 71% 1+, 36% 2+ Lukas Van Ness LB Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 days, Green Bay Packers 10 days Tampa Bay Buccaneers recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Green Bay Packers recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ----- ------ 2023 TB 34 GB 20 TB Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------ --- ---- ------------ Justin Skule OL TB Questionable Sean Tucker RB TB Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7410