Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings NFL, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 8:05 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Minnesota Vikings by 10.9 points, giving them a 77% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 34.3 combined points, with Minnesota Vikings at 22.5 and Miami Dolphins at 11.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Minnesota Vikings's margin lands between -6.2 and +27.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Minnesota Vikings -10.9 / Miami Dolphins +10.9 Moneyline: Minnesota Vikings -326 / Miami Dolphins +326 Win probability: Minnesota Vikings 76.5% / Miami Dolphins 23.5% Projected total: 34.3 points Last recalculated: September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Minnesota Vikings: 1583.7, Miami Dolphins: 1413.3 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Minnesota Vikings Miami Dolphins ------------------------- ----------------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.1 home_field_vector +16.1 -- neutral_script_efficiency -5.8 +14.3 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened Minnesota Vikings -7.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -7.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Miami Dolphins 11.8 -- Minnesota Vikings 22.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------ ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Minnesota Vikings margin -6.2 +1.8 +10.7 +19.6 +27.9 Total points 16.9 25.0 34.3 43.5 51.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MINNESOTA VIKINGS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kyler Murray QB Passing yards 189.5 116-272 Pass attempts 29.7 22-43 Completions 19.6 14-29 Passing TDs 1.12 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Rushing yards 31.6 13-45 Rushing TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Aaron Jones RB Rushing yards 61.2 26-94 Carries 12.9 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Receiving yards 23.5 4-33 Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Mason RB Rushing yards 56.0 20-88 Carries 9.6 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 7.7 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Justin Jefferson WR Receiving yards 41.4 7-75 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Jauan Jennings WR Receiving yards 35.9 2-48 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.78 54% 1+, 18% 2+ T.J. Hockenson TE Receiving yards 34.9 9-61 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Jordan Addison WR Receiving yards 33.8 -- Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Josh Oliver TE Receiving yards 21.7 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Blake Cashman LB Tackles 4.9 4-7 Byron Murphy DB Tackles 3.6 2-5 Levi Drake Rodriguez DL Tackles 1.8 1-2 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Dallas Turner LB Sacks 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Andrew Van Ginkel LB Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ MIAMI DOLPHINS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Malik Willis QB Passing yards 169.8 97-298 Pass attempts 22.6 14-35 Completions 14.9 10-23 Passing TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Rushing yards 30.6 12-54 Rushing TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Devon Achane RB Rushing yards 70.5 35-116 Carries 14.0 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 29.3 10-50 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylen Wright RB Rushing yards 34.8 -- Carries 8.5 3-17 Rushing TDs 0.22 19% 1+ Receiving yards 13.4 -- Receptions 1.5 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Greg Dulcich TE Receiving yards 33.6 8-48 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Malik Washington WR Rushing yards 10.0 2-18 Rushing TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Receiving yards 29.0 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Jordyn Brooks LB Tackles 5.2 4-8 Darrell Baker DB Tackles 3.6 2-6 Chop Robinson LB Tackles 1.6 1-2 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Jordan Phillips DL Tackles 1.1 1-1 Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ Zach Sieler DL Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Clelin Ferrell DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Minnesota Vikings 7 days, Miami Dolphins 7 days Minnesota Vikings recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Miami Dolphins recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7411