Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders NFL, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 8:25 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Kansas City Chiefs by 6.5 points, giving them a 67% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 30.1 combined points, with Las Vegas Raiders at 11.9 and Kansas City Chiefs at 18.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Las Vegas Raiders's margin lands between -23.4 and +10.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 / Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 Moneyline: Las Vegas Raiders +203 / Kansas City Chiefs -203 Win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 33.0% / Kansas City Chiefs 67.0% Projected total: 30.1 points Last recalculated: September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Las Vegas Raiders: 1362.1, Kansas City Chiefs: 1532.3 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Las Vegas Raiders Kansas City Chiefs ------------------------- ----------------- ------------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -3.0 -6.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.6 home_field_vector +7.9 -- neutral_script_efficiency -20.0 -17.8 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened Las Vegas Raiders +5.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +5.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Kansas City Chiefs 18.3 -- Las Vegas Raiders 11.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------ ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Las Vegas Raiders margin -23.4 -15.4 -6.5 +2.4 +10.7 Total points 12.7 21.1 30.1 39.3 47.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kirk Cousins QB Passing yards 186.6 113-258 Pass attempts 31.1 23-39 Completions 19.7 14-25 Passing TDs 1.32 73% 1+, 38% 2+ Rushing yards 3.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Ashton Jeanty RB Rushing yards 58.2 23-96 Carries 14.5 9-21 Rushing TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Receiving yards 26.0 7-50 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Jalen Nailor WR Receiving yards 38.6 5-70 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Michael Mayer TE Receiving yards 35.2 10-63 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Tre Tucker WR Rushing yards 5.4 2-8 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 30.3 -- Receptions 3.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Jack Bech WR Receiving yards 25.8 -- Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Jeremy Chinn DB Tackles 3.9 2-6 Quay Walker LB Tackles 3.7 2-6 Adam Butler DL Tackles 2.4 2-4 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Jonah Laulu DL Tackles 2.2 2-3 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Maxx Crosby DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Tonka Hemingway DL Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Patrick Mahomes QB Passing yards 222.3 149-286 Pass attempts 34.1 26-42 Completions 20.6 15-28 Passing TDs 1.13 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Rushing yards 25.4 7-43 Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Kenneth Walker RB Rushing yards 60.8 25-107 Carries 14.5 9-21 Rushing TDs 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Receiving yards 23.5 4-43 Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Rashee Rice WR Rushing yards 6.0 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Receiving yards 55.7 22-94 Receptions 5.3 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Tyquan Thornton WR Receiving yards 44.9 11-70 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Xavier Worthy WR Rushing yards 9.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 37.7 4-54 Receptions 3.2 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Travis Kelce TE Receiving yards 29.9 4-52 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Noah Gray TE Receiving yards 17.8 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nick Bolton LB Tackles 4.4 3-6 Khyiris Tonga DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Chris Jones DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ George Karlaftis DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Las Vegas Raiders 7 days, Kansas City Chiefs 7 days Las Vegas Raiders recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Kansas City Chiefs recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ----- ------ 2025 KC 12 LV 14 LV 2025 LV 0 KC 31 KC 2024 LV 17 KC 19 KC 2024 KC 27 LV 20 KC 2023 LV 20 KC 14 LV ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7412