Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks NFL, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 8:25 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Seattle Seahawks by 14.6 points, giving them a 83% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 32.0 combined points, with Seattle Seahawks at 23.3 and Los Angeles Chargers at 8.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Seattle Seahawks's margin lands between -2.6 and +32.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Seattle Seahawks -14.6 / Los Angeles Chargers +14.6 Moneyline: Seattle Seahawks -486 / Los Angeles Chargers +486 Win probability: Seattle Seahawks 82.9% / Los Angeles Chargers 17.1% Projected total: 32.0 points Last recalculated: September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Seattle Seahawks: 1703.0, Los Angeles Chargers: 1484.7 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Seattle Seahawks Los Angeles Chargers ------------------------- ---------------- -------------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -9.0 -6.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.1 home_field_vector -6.3 -- neutral_script_efficiency +7.7 -20.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened Seattle Seahawks -3.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -3.0 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Los Angeles Chargers 8.5 -- Seattle Seahawks 23.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Seattle Seahawks margin -2.6 +5.7 +14.9 +24.0 +32.3 Total points 14.5 22.6 31.8 41.2 49.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Sam Darnold QB Passing yards 186.1 113-284 Pass attempts 29.0 21-42 Completions 18.6 13-27 Passing TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Rushing yards 10.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Rushing yards 6.8 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 67.1 33-113 Receptions 5.8 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Cooper Kupp WR Receiving yards 38.8 5-56 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ A.J. Barner TE Receiving yards 34.7 9-54 Receptions 3.1 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Rashid Shaheed WR Rushing yards 7.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 34.0 0-64 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ George Holani RB Rushing yards 18.1 -- Carries 6.1 0-10 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 17.3 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Eric Saubert TE Receiving yards 12.8 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ernest Jones LB Tackles 4.8 3-8 Josh Jobe DB Tackles 3.1 2-5 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Nick Emmanwori DB Tackles 2.5 1-5 Byron Murphy DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Derick Hall LB Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Leonard Williams DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Justin Herbert QB Passing yards 193.9 121-264 Pass attempts 27.7 20-33 Completions 17.9 12-23 Passing TDs 0.89 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Rushing yards 32.3 14-56 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Quentin Johnston WR Receiving yards 44.3 10-81 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Omarion Hampton RB Rushing yards 39.9 4-70 Carries 12.2 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Receiving yards 17.4 -- Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.06 6% 1+ Ladd McConkey WR Receiving yards 35.6 2-58 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ David Njoku TE Receiving yards 35.2 10-64 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Tre Harris WR Receiving yards 30.4 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Keaton Mitchell RB Rushing yards 23.7 -- Carries 6.1 0-10 Rushing TDs 0.06 6% 1+ Receiving yards 8.7 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Charlie Kolar TE Receiving yards 22.4 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Daiyan Henley LB Tackles 4.0 2-7 Derwin James DB Tackles 3.6 2-6 Dalvin Tomlinson DL Tackles 2.3 2-3 Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Teair Tart DL Tackles 1.9 1-3 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Tuli Tuipulotu LB Sacks 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Khalil Mack LB Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Seattle Seahawks 7 days, Los Angeles Chargers 7 days Seattle Seahawks recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Los Angeles Chargers recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7413