Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers NFL, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 8:25 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors San Francisco 49ers by 3.1 points, giving them a 58% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 43.6 combined points, with San Francisco 49ers at 23.3 and Denver Broncos at 20.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, San Francisco 49ers's margin lands between -14.4 and +20.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Ricky Pearsall (Out), De'Zhaun Stribling (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: San Francisco 49ers -3.1 / Denver Broncos +3.1 Moneyline: San Francisco 49ers -139 / Denver Broncos +139 Win probability: San Francisco 49ers 58.2% / Denver Broncos 41.8% Projected total: 43.6 points Last recalculated: September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- San Francisco 49ers: 1598.3, Denver Broncos: 1583.0 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor San Francisco 49ers Denver Broncos ------------------------- ------------------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -3.0 +0.0 travel_fatigue +3.1 -0.5 home_field_vector +2.9 -- neutral_script_efficiency +10.9 +7.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -2.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Denver Broncos 20.3 -- San Francisco 49ers 23.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- San Francisco 49ers margin -14.4 -6.1 +2.9 +12.2 +20.1 Total points 25.7 34.4 43.6 52.9 61.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Brock Purdy QB Passing yards 197.3 124-266 Pass attempts 30.8 22-34 Completions 20.5 15-25 Passing TDs 1.71 82% 1+, 51% 2+ Rushing yards 23.8 5-36 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Christian McCaffrey RB Rushing yards 62.7 27-107 Carries 14.1 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 29.9 11-48 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ George Kittle TE Receiving yards 54.7 29-102 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Mike Evans WR Receiving yards 46.4 12-78 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Jake Tonges TE Receiving yards 43.6 18-75 Receptions 3.8 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Deebo Samuel WR Rushing yards 4.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 43.2 9-62 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Fred Warner LB Tackles 5.3 4-7 Tatum Bethune LB Tackles 4.5 3-7 Osa Odighizuwa DL Tackles 1.6 1-2 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Nick Bosa DL Sacks 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Keion White DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ DENVER BRONCOS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bo Nix QB Passing yards 239.2 166-331 Pass attempts 35.3 28-45 Completions 22.9 18-29 Passing TDs 1.41 76% 1+, 41% 2+ Rushing yards 26.0 7-44 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ J.K. Dobbins RB Rushing yards 62.7 27-90 Carries 13.9 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 8.7 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylen Waddle WR Receiving yards 52.2 18-83 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Courtland Sutton WR Receiving yards 50.4 16-92 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ R.J. Harvey RB Rushing yards 46.1 11-68 Carries 12.1 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 27.3 8-48 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Marvin Mims WR Rushing yards 6.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 37.7 4-72 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Evan Engram TE Receiving yards 25.2 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Adam Trautman TE Receiving yards 21.5 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alex Singleton LB Tackles 4.3 2-8 Talanoa Hufanga DB Tackles 3.5 2-5 D.J. Jones DL Tackles 2.3 2-3 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Eyioma Uwazurike DL Tackles 1.6 1-2 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Nik Bonitto LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Zach Allen DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: San Francisco 49ers 7 days, Denver Broncos 7 days San Francisco 49ers recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Denver Broncos recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------------ --- ---- ------ Ricky Pearsall WR SF Out De'Zhaun Stribling WR SF Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7414