Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers NFL, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 5, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Detroit Lions by 7.4 points, giving them a 69% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 59.8 combined points, with Carolina Panthers at 26.2 and Detroit Lions at 33.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Carolina Panthers's margin lands between -24.7 and +9.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Carolina Panthers +7.4 / Detroit Lions -7.4 Moneyline: Carolina Panthers +224 / Detroit Lions -224 Win probability: Carolina Panthers 30.9% / Detroit Lions 69.2% Projected total: 59.8 points Last recalculated: September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Carolina Panthers: 1392.8, Detroit Lions: 1567.4 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Carolina Panthers Detroit Lions ------------------------- ----------------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -3.0 -3.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.5 home_field_vector +7.8 -- neutral_script_efficiency -19.0 -9.1 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened Carolina Panthers +3.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +3.0 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Detroit Lions 33.7 -- Carolina Panthers 26.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------ ----- ----- ---- ---- ---- Carolina Panthers margin -24.7 -16.8 -7.3 +1.9 +9.5 Total points 41.8 50.6 59.9 69.3 77.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CAROLINA PANTHERS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bryce Young QB Passing yards 234.2 161-339 Pass attempts 30.6 22-38 Completions 19.2 14-23 Passing TDs 1.86 84% 1+, 56% 2+ Rushing yards 26.7 8-44 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Jalen Coker WR Receiving yards 71.9 38-128 Receptions 4.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 1.06 66% 1+, 29% 2+ Tetairoa McMillan WR Receiving yards 61.0 27-98 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Chuba Hubbard RB Rushing yards 41.5 6-66 Carries 10.4 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 20.7 2-36 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Xavier Legette WR Receiving yards 36.7 3-70 Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Tommy Tremble TE Receiving yards 28.7 3-49 Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Mitchell Evans TE Receiving yards 19.9 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nick Scott DB Tackles 4.8 4-7 Bobby Okereke LB Tackles 4.6 3-6 Derrick Brown DL Tackles 3.0 2-4 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Jaelan Phillips LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Trevis Gipson LB Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ DETROIT LIONS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jared Goff QB Passing yards 257.4 184-321 Pass attempts 36.0 28-45 Completions 23.8 18-29 Passing TDs 1.73 82% 1+, 52% 2+ Rushing yards 9.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Receiving yards 86.4 52-142 Receptions 6.1 4-10 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Jameson Williams WR Rushing yards 2.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 81.2 47-126 Receptions 4.9 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.31 26% 1+ Jahmyr Gibbs RB Rushing yards 72.3 37-161 Carries 14.1 8-21 Rushing TDs 1.13 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Receiving yards 36.0 17-63 Receptions 4.0 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 9% 2+ Sam LaPorta TE Receiving yards 50.6 25-83 Receptions 4.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Isaac TeSlaa WR Receiving yards 36.0 2-55 Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Brock Wright TE Receiving yards 23.5 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Jack Campbell LB Tackles 5.2 4-7 Devin White LB Tackles 5.0 4-8 Tyleik Williams DL Tackles 1.4 0-2 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Aidan Hutchinson DL Sacks 1.12 68% 1+, 31% 2+ Alim McNeill DL Tackles 1.1 1-1 Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ D.J. Wonnum LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: Carolina Panthers 7 days, Detroit Lions 7 days Carolina Panthers recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Detroit Lions recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2023 CAR 24 DET 42 DET ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7415