Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints NFL, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 6, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors New Orleans Saints by 0.5 points, giving them a 51% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 41.3 combined points, with New Orleans Saints at 20.9 and Atlanta Falcons at 20.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, New Orleans Saints's margin lands between -16.4 and +18.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Alvin Kamara (Questionable), Tua Tagovailoa (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: New Orleans Saints -0.5 / Atlanta Falcons +0.5 Moneyline: New Orleans Saints -105 / Atlanta Falcons +105 Win probability: New Orleans Saints 51.3% / Atlanta Falcons 48.7% Projected total: 41.3 points Last recalculated: September 15, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- New Orleans Saints: 1422.8, Atlanta Falcons: 1449.7 -- plus a +35.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (18.9 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor New Orleans Saints Atlanta Falcons ------------------------- ------------------ --------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -6.0 -12.0 travel_fatigue +1.2 +1.2 home_field_vector +4.9 -- neutral_script_efficiency -13.1 -3.2 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened New Orleans Saints -2.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now -2.5 (August 30, 2026 at 6:20 PM UTC), 193 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Atlanta Falcons 20.2 -- New Orleans Saints 20.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------- ----- ---- ---- ---- ----- New Orleans Saints margin -16.4 -8.2 +0.7 +9.6 +18.1 Total points 23.8 32.2 41.2 50.1 58.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tyler Shough QB Passing yards 256.7 184-339 Pass attempts 35.0 27-47 Completions 23.6 18-31 Passing TDs 1.28 72% 1+, 37% 2+ Rushing yards 26.1 8-44 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Chris Olave WR Receiving yards 72.6 39-123 Receptions 5.7 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.89 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Travis Etienne RB Rushing yards 52.9 17-74 Carries 13.1 8-17 Rushing TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Receiving yards 26.1 7-51 Receptions 3.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Juwan Johnson TE Receiving yards 47.9 22-73 Receptions 4.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Devaughn Vele WR Receiving yards 42.5 8-73 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.29 26% 1+ Alvin Kamara RB Rushing yards 27.2 -- Carries 6.9 2-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 13.1 -- Receptions 1.9 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Noah Fant TE Receiving yards 22.9 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Justin Reid DB Tackles 3.7 2-6 Kool-Aid McKinstry DB Tackles 3.5 2-5 Colby Wooden DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Davon Godchaux DL Tackles 2.1 2-3 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Chase Young LB Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ ATLANTA FALCONS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tua Tagovailoa QB Passing yards 186.5 113-246 Pass attempts 26.1 18-33 Completions 17.0 12-22 Passing TDs 1.14 68% 1+, 32% 2+ Rushing yards 3.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.03 3% 1+ Bijan Robinson RB Rushing yards 71.3 36-125 Carries 16.0 10-20 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 33.5 14-70 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Drake London WR Receiving yards 52.7 19-96 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.76 53% 1+, 18% 2+ Kyle Pitts TE Receiving yards 40.3 15-85 Receptions 4.4 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Jahan Dotson WR Receiving yards 25.2 -- Receptions 2.1 -- Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Brian Robinson RB Rushing yards 24.5 -- Carries 6.6 1-10 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 4.9 -- Receptions 1.5 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Charlie Woerner TE Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Olamide Zaccheaus WR Rushing yards 5.6 1-10 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 14.6 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Mike Hughes DB Tackles 4.4 3-6 Divine Deablo LB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Samson Ebukam DL Tackles 2.0 0-3 Sacks 0.00 0% 1+ Brandon Dorlus DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Za'Darius Smith LB Sacks 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rest: New Orleans Saints 8 days, Atlanta Falcons 11 days New Orleans Saints recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Atlanta Falcons recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 NO 17 ATL 19 ATL 2025 ATL 24 NO 10 ATL 2024 ATL 17 NO 20 NO 2024 NO 24 ATL 26 ATL 2023 ATL 17 NO 48 NO Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status -------------- --- ---- ------------ Alvin Kamara RB NO Questionable Tua Tagovailoa QB ATL Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/7416